The future of transportation is SAE 4 & 5, Maglev and Hyperloops

Interesting piece by the Economist Intelligence Unit on the future of transportation in 5, 10 and 25 years from now.

Five years from now the EIU argues that driverless cars will be more numerous more quickly than was predicted – especially with regards to lorries, buses and taxis.  But a word of warning, they talk about “SEA” levels, when they really mean SAE levels (the Society of Automotive Engineers).  And if you are not sure what these levels are, it relates to the extent to which a vehicle may be truly autonomous ie.

• Level 0 – no autonomous features at all.
• Level 1 – now common features such as cruise control and park assist fit into this category.
• Level 2 – vehicle has control of steering, acceleration and braking, but driver must keep hands on steering wheel at all times in case system fails e.g. Tesla’s Autopilot.
• Level 3 – autonomous, but driver needs to be  awake and “mindful” as may need to take control in an emergency e.g. Audi’s A8L.
• Level 4 – even more autonomous, driver can go to sleep – but only in certain road conditions such as traffic jams or geofenced highways e.g. Google’s Waymo and MIT’s nuTonomy.
• Level 5 – vehicles that can drive themselves around without a human being inside them.

Much of the discussion about this is centred on the technology, but more recently the debate about the legal and ethical implications of such vehicles has begun.  For instance, if there is a fatal accident caused by a Level 4 vehicle who is responsible – the owner, the “driver”, the dealer, or the manufacturer?  In my view, the adoption of this technology will be slower than the EIU forecasts not because the technology holds it back, but because society has not yet worked out all its implications, (as was the case with genetically modified foods).

Ten years from now, the technology transforming transportation will be maglev powered trains and hyperloops.  Maglev refers to magnetic levitation, which significantly cuts journey time.  For instance, the Chuo Shinkansen will enable passengers to travel the 350 kms from Tokyo to Nagoya in 40 minutes from the mid 2020s.  But this nothing compared with a hyperloop, which is a maglev train inside a tunnel from which the air has been largely removed.  They are projected to achieve speeds of 680 mph.

Twenty-five years from now the EIU is predicting a fully integrated transport system that can be personalised by each traveller using their smart phone.