There have been reports/blogs recently about a ‘geopolitical forecasting tournament’ which lead to the winning team publishing a research paper on why teams are better at forecasting than individuals (see here). That lead me to look in more detail at this issue which is how I ended up at the Harvard Business Review website and this short article. It summarises the outcomes of this research programme into forecasting, of which a series of these tournaments have been a key part. The headlines are that forecasting is better if:
- forecasters are intelligent
- forecasters are experts in their field
- practiced frequently
- done by teams
- forecasters are trained in probability
- forecasters have an open mind
- not rushed
- forecasts are revised after a period of reflection.
We discuss forecasting on pages 180-184 of the book.