How to improve your forecasting

There have been reports/blogs recently about a ‘geopolitical forecasting tournament’ which lead to the winning team publishing a research paper on why teams are better at forecasting than individuals (see here).  That lead me to look in more detail at this issue which is how I ended up at the Harvard Business Review website and this short article.  It summarises the outcomes of this research programme into forecasting, of which a series of these tournaments have been a key part.  The headlines are that forecasting is better if:

  • forecasters are intelligent
  • forecasters are experts in their field
  • practiced frequently
  • done by teams
  • forecasters are trained in probability
  • forecasters have an open mind
  • not rushed
  • forecasts are revised after a period of reflection.

We discuss forecasting on pages 180-184 of the book.

This entry was posted in Chap 07 Capacity and demand, Operations Management and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

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